2-2. That was the score that would have qualified both Croatia and Spain, had they reached it in their direct match, and that would have taken Italy out of contention.
... Again, that is.
In 2004, Italy had drawn against Denmark, 0-0, and Sweden, 1-1, and the two nordic countries made it such that their direct match ended 2-2. ("2-2 = nordic victory" was a famous slogan used by Scandinavian fans, at that time, in Portugal.)
And I'm sure so many Italians feared an arrangement like that one very, very much.
But history did not repeat itself.
Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque clearly said that Spain will play to win. And they did just that.
As a matter of fact, Spain could lose, too, because they made some errors in defense in the second half, but they were somewhat lucky, first, because the Croatians were not able to score from some great opportunities, and secondly because they scored after an attack which was very close to being offside (on two counts).
At 0-0 in Gdansk, if Italy was to win against Ireland, which was the most probable outcome in Poznan, the Italians would have won the group (even with the weakest victory, 1-0).
Yes, the direct-encounter tie-breaking criteria can be quite unfair sometimes on teams that play the better football overall.
But Italy needed to win, to have any chances of advancing. A draw would not do. And, unlike in their first two matches, Ireland did not concede any goals in the first 3-4 minutes. Italy had to work for it hard. Trapattoni was not handing the Italian team any gifts.
Italy was not playing great, but the goal did come. Somewhat like Shevchenko's second goal against Sweden, and Pepe's goal against Denmark, Cassano's effort sneaked past the goalkeeper, too.
Duff tried to clear it, but the ball had already crossed the goal line, and the referees got a good view of it.
Italy was up 1-0.
It was what the Croatians feared. At this point, they were still tied on points with the Spanish, but had a worse goal difference. So, Croatia would have been out, while Italy would have won the group.
Assuming Italy would not lose points against Ireland, especially as they were already leading, Croatia desperately needed a goal to advance.
Bilic's team really did play for that, against the world and European champion, much to their credit.
15 minutes before the end, Rakitic could, and maybe should, have scored after being left alone with Casillas, in a position to head the ball on goal.
But the Spanish goalkeeper made himself big that time, and the Croatians were to regret that big opportunity.
Meanwhile, Italy was living dangerously, too, as the Irish players were beginning to try powerful strikes from distance. Buffon had to save a dangerous-looking strike from Andrews.
The game in Gdansk was nearing completion, and it was still 0-0. Croatia was looking more dangerous.
But then the Croatian back line decided (or perhaps was instructed, and stupidly so) to play the offside trap against the Spanish midfield. It was the 88th minute.
Fabregas chipped the ball over the Croatians, to find Iniesta on-side, alone with Pletikosa. And having Jesus Navas right to his right, too. A perfect pass sideways, and the Croatian goalkeeper had absolutely no chance. Navas walked the ball into the net, practically.
This did not change much for Croatia, because they still needed to score, anyway. (Italy was still leading.)
But it did not help their morale. Why would you play the offside trap against Spain???
In the other match, as if knowing that Italy was still not yet assured of a spot in the quarter-finals (- and, as a matter of fact, the Spanish goal meant Italy was only one Croatian or Irish goal away from elimination, whereas at 0-0 in Gdansk the situation was looking better for the Italians -) Balotelli scored a spectacular goal with his back towards the goalkeeper, which helped ensure the Italian victory.
Italy, though, could have been eliminated if Croatia had tied the match against Spain. (They would have gone out because of scoring fewer goals than Croatia in their three matches.)
Luckily for Italy, Spain hung on, and Croatia had to admit defeat.
Well, Bilic was furious, but what could he do?
At 2-0, in injury time, Italy was going for the third goal. (That would have ensured their progress, even with a 1-1 draw in the Croatia-Spain match.) They did not want to leave anything to chance.
The Italians could not score that third goal, but they did not need to. One minute after their match was over, so was the game between Spain and Croatia.
It was very bad luck for Croatia, a team that posed a lot of problems to both Spain and Italy, and would not have advanced undeservingly if they had taken their chances better.
Ireland had the best fans, and Croatia perhaps the best coach, considering what he had to work with and the results he achieved, and they deserve to be praised for this. But, in the end, most people will feel that the best teams advanced from this group.
Highlights from Croatia - Spain 0-1:
See highlights from Italy - Ireland 2-0 here.
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