Saturday 16 June 2012

Group B - Possible Scenarios

Here's what could happen on the final matchday of Group B:

1) Portugal wins & Denmark wins
1-1. Denmark wins 1-0:
Portugal 6p, Denmark 6p, Germany 6 p, Netherlands 0p
(Portugal and Denmark would have identical best head-to-head records in the three-way tie against Germany, eliminating the Germans, but Portugal would win the group thanks to better goal difference or more goals scored or higher UEFA national team coefficient.)
1-2. Denmark wins 3-2 and Portugal wins 1-0 or 2-1:
Denmark 6p, Germany 6p, Portugal 6p, Netherlands 0p
(Portugal and Germany would have identical worst head-to-head records in the three-way tie against Denmark, but Germany would advance thanks to having scored one more goal or a higher UEFA national team coefficient.)
1-3. Denmark wins by any score other than 1-0 and 3-2 or wins 3-2 and Portugal wins by any score other than 1-0 or 2-1:
Denmark 6p, Portugal 6p, Germany 6p, Netherlands 0p
(Denmark and Portugal would advance because Germany would have the worst head-to-head record against Denmark and Portugal or worse goal difference than Portugal or fewer goals scored than Portugal)

2) Portugal wins & draw in the other match:
Germany 7p, Portugal 6p, Denmark 4p, Netherlands 0p

3) Portugal wins & Germany wins:
Germany 9p, Portugal 6p, Denmark 3p, Netherlands 0p

4) draw in the first match & Denmark wins
Denmark 6p, Germany 6p, Portugal 4p, Netherlands 1p
(Denmark would win the group because of the head-to-head record.)

5) draws in both matches:
Germany 7p, Portugal 4p, Denmark 4p, Netherlands 1p
(Portugal would advance because of the head-to-head record.)

6) draw in the first match & Germany wins:
Germany 9p, Portugal 4p, Denmark 3p, Netherlands 1p

7) Netherlands wins & Denmark wins:
Denmark 6p, Germany 6p, Netherlands 3p, Portugal 3p
(Denmark would win the group because of the head-to-head record, and Portugal would finish bottom because of the head-to-head record.)

8) Netherlands wins & draw in the other match
Germany 7p, Denmark 4p, Netherlands 3p, Portugal 3p
(Netherlands would finish third because of the head-to-head record.)

9) Netherlands wins & Germany wins
9-1. Netherlands wins 1-0 and Germany wins 1-0 or by two or more goals:
Germany 9p, Portugal 3p, Denmark 3p, Netherlands 3p
(Portugal and Denmark would have identical best head-to-head records against Netherlands, but Portugal would advance thanks to superior goal difference or being ranked higher in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings.)
9-2. Netherlands wins 1-0 and Germany wins by one goal but not 1-0:
Germany 9p, Denmark 3p, Portugal 3p, Netherlands 3p
(Portugal and Denmark would have identical best head-to-head records against Netherlands, but Denmark would advance thanks to scoring more goals than Portugal in the tournament.)
9-3. Netherlands wins by one goal but not 1-0:
Germany 9p, Portugal 3p, Netherlands or Denmark 3p, Denmark or Netherlands 3p
(Portugal would advance because of scoring more goals in the head-to-head records against Netherlands and Denmark, while Netherlands and Denmark would be separated depending on how many goals Netherlands scores against Portugal and/or the severity of Denmark's defeat, but this is not extremely important since both teams would be out and very few might care who finished third and who finished fourth.)
9-4. Netherlands wins by two goals or more:
Germany 9p, Netherlands 3p, Denmark 3p, Portugal 3p
(Netherlands would advance because of better goal difference in the head-to-head records against Denmark and Portugal, leaving Portugal with the worst goal difference.)

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