Honour, Luck and Costly Misses

2-2. That was the score that would have qualified both Croatia and Spain, had they reached it in their direct match, and that would have taken Italy out of contention.

... Again, that is.
In 2004, Italy had drawn against Denmark, 0-0, and Sweden, 1-1, and the two nordic countries made it such that their direct match ended 2-2. ("2-2 = nordic victory" was a famous slogan used by Scandinavian fans, at that time, in Portugal.)
And I'm sure so many Italians feared an arrangement like that one very, very much.

But history did not repeat itself.
Spanish coach Vicente del Bosque clearly said that Spain will play to win. And they did just that.

As a matter of fact, Spain could lose, too, because they made some errors in defense in the second half, but they were somewhat lucky, first, because the Croatians were not able to score from some great opportunities, and secondly because they scored after an attack which was very close to being offside (on two counts).

At 0-0 in Gdansk, if Italy was to win against Ireland, which was the most probable outcome in Poznan, the Italians would have won the group (even with the weakest victory, 1-0).
Yes, the direct-encounter tie-breaking criteria can be quite unfair sometimes on teams that play the better football overall.

But Italy needed to win, to have any chances of advancing. A draw would not do. And, unlike in their first two matches, Ireland did not concede any goals in the first 3-4 minutes. Italy had to work for it hard. Trapattoni was not handing the Italian team any gifts.

Italy was not playing great, but the goal did come. Somewhat like Shevchenko's second goal against Sweden, and Pepe's goal against Denmark, Cassano's effort sneaked past the goalkeeper, too.
Duff tried to clear it, but the ball had already crossed the goal line, and the referees got a good view of it.
Italy was up 1-0.

It was what the Croatians feared. At this point, they were still tied on points with the Spanish, but had a worse goal difference. So, Croatia would have been out, while Italy would have won the group.
Assuming Italy would not lose points against Ireland, especially as they were already leading, Croatia desperately needed a goal to advance.

Bilic's team really did play for that, against the world and European champion, much to their credit.

15 minutes before the end, Rakitic could, and maybe should, have scored after being left alone with Casillas, in a position to head the ball on goal.
But the Spanish goalkeeper made himself big that time, and the Croatians were to regret that big opportunity.

Meanwhile, Italy was living dangerously, too, as the Irish players were beginning to try powerful strikes from distance. Buffon had to save a dangerous-looking strike from Andrews.

The game in Gdansk was nearing completion, and it was still 0-0. Croatia was looking more dangerous.
But then the Croatian back line decided (or perhaps was instructed, and stupidly so) to play the offside trap against the Spanish midfield. It was the 88th minute.
Fabregas chipped the ball over the Croatians, to find Iniesta on-side, alone with Pletikosa. And having Jesus Navas right to his right, too. A perfect pass sideways, and the Croatian goalkeeper had absolutely no chance. Navas walked the ball into the net, practically.

This did not change much for Croatia, because they still needed to score, anyway. (Italy was still leading.)
But it did not help their morale. Why would you play the offside trap against Spain???

In the other match, as if knowing that Italy was still not yet assured of a spot in the quarter-finals (- and, as a matter of fact, the Spanish goal meant Italy was only one Croatian or Irish goal away from elimination, whereas at 0-0 in Gdansk the situation was looking better for the Italians -) Balotelli scored a spectacular goal with his back towards the goalkeeper, which helped ensure the Italian victory.

Italy, though, could have been eliminated if Croatia had tied the match against Spain. (They would have gone out because of scoring fewer goals than Croatia in their three matches.)

Luckily for Italy, Spain hung on, and Croatia had to admit defeat.
Well, Bilic was furious, but what could he do?

At 2-0, in injury time, Italy was going for the third goal. (That would have ensured their progress, even with a 1-1 draw in the Croatia-Spain match.) They did not want to leave anything to chance.
The Italians could not score that third goal, but they did not need to. One minute after their match was over, so was the game between Spain and Croatia.

It was very bad luck for Croatia, a team that posed a lot of problems to both Spain and Italy, and would not have advanced undeservingly if they had taken their chances better.

Ireland had the best fans, and Croatia perhaps the best coach, considering what he had to work with and the results he achieved, and they deserve to be praised for this. But, in the end, most people will feel that the best teams advanced from this group.

Highlights from Croatia - Spain 0-1:


See highlights from Italy - Ireland 2-0 here.

Group C - Possible Scenarios

Here's what could happen on the final matchday of Group C:

1) Croatia wins & Italy wins:
Croatia 7p, Italy 5p, Spain 4p, Ireland 0p

2) Croatia wins & draw in the other match:
Croatia 7p, Spain 4p, Italy 3p, Ireland 1p

3) Croatia wins & Ireland wins:
Croatia 7p, Spain 4p, Ireland 3p, Italy 2p

4) draw in the first match & Italy wins
4-1. Croatia-Spain finishes 0-0:
Italy 5p, Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Ireland 0p
(Italy would win the group because of having the most goals scored in the head-to-head records against Spain and Croatia, while Spain would advance because of having a better goal difference than Croatia.)
4-2. Croatia-Spain finishes 1-1 and Italy wins by one goal or 2-0:
Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Italy 5p, Ireland 0p
(Spain would win the group because of having the best goal difference, while Croatia would advance because of having a better goal difference and/or more goals scored than Italy.)
4-3. Croatia-Spain finishes 1-1 and Italy wins by two goals but not 2-0 or by three goals or 4-0:
Spain 5p, Italy 5p, Croatia 5p, Ireland 0p
(Spain would win the group because of having the best goal difference or a higher UEFA national team coefficient than Italy, while Italy would advance because of having a better goal difference than Croatia and/or more goals scored than Croatia and/or having a higher UEFA national team coefficient than Croatia.)
4-4. Croatia-Spain finishes 1-1 and Italy wins by four goals but not 4-0 or by more goals:
Italy 5p, Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Ireland 0p
(Italy would win the group because of having the best goal difference or more goals scored than Spain, while Spain would advance because of having a better goal difference than Croatia.)
4-5. Croatia-Spain finishes in a higher-scoring draw:
Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Italy 5p, Ireland 0p
(Spain would win the group because of having a better goal difference than Croatia, while Croatia would advance because of having, just like Spain, more goals scored than Italy in the head-to-head records between the three teams.)

5) draws in both matches:
Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Italy 3p, Ireland 1p
(Spain would win the group because of having a better goal difference than Croatia.)

6) draw in the first match & Ireland wins:
Spain 5p, Croatia 5p, Ireland 3p, Italy 2p
(Spain would win the group because of having a better goal difference than Croatia.)

7) Spain wins & Italy wins:
Spain 7p, Italy 5p, Croatia 4p, Ireland 0p

8) Spain wins & draw in the other match:
Spain 7p, Croatia 4p, Italy 3p, Ireland 1p

9) Spain wins & Ireland wins:
Spain 7p, Croatia 4p, Ireland 3p, Italy 2p

Bye-Bye, Ireland!

Just like in the first match, Ireland conceded goals within the first five minutes, in both halves.
Only this time, they could not score even once.

Spain won 4-0, with Torres netting two (in minutes 4 and 70), and Silva (49) and Fabregas (83) scoring the other two.

You cannot have any hopes of advancing when you cannot allow any fewer than three goals in either of your matches played.
Too bad for the Irish fans.

The Irish players tried, but they just are not good enough to do well at a European Championship.
Could Estonia have done any better?

Fifteen teams left now.

See highlights here.

The Funny Football

I remember saying that the Czech Republic was probably the weakest side at the Euros, in a previous post.

But now a new contender emerges: The Republic of Ireland.
What a team of almost-amateurish players! You can't help but laugh at their antics in the game against Croatia.

Of course, this Ireland squad also had a tremendous amount of bad luck in this particular game. But they really, really had to do better against the team that was supposedly the weakest of their three upcoming opponents. They didn't, and I think it's safe to say Ireland will not advance past the group stage at this competition.

Three minutes into the game, and Croatia was already 1-0 up. Irish goalkeeper Shay Given should have done better against Mandzukic's header.
Ireland ties the game before the 20th minute, but do they manage to hold onto that result till half-time?
No.
With two minutes left in the first half, Ward forgets how to properly clear a ball in his penalty area and manages a perfect sliced pass backwards, exactly to Jelavic (who ordinarily would have been in an offside position, but is not judged as such because of Ward's tremendously uninspired clearance), and the Everton striker puts Croatia ahead again.
Wow! (Blame the stupid rule, not the referee!)

And the worst was not over for the Irish.
Three minutes (- Again, 3 minutes, and again Mandzukic with the Croatian effort! -) after the break, a Croatian header hits the post, comes back out, but ricochets into the goal off of the head of the unfortunate Given. Pinball stuff! And this goal can surely make some viewers have a nice laugh.

After that, Ireland had a few chances that could have put them back into contention, but those did not go their way, either.
Even though Irish fans could invoke the lack of good luck, I don't think any other teams making it at a final tournament like this one could play in such a bumbling fashion. So, a very large part of the blame belongs to their own players.

Highlights:

Ireland Republic v Croatia by shmooot